Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Blackwell Update

NixGuy ready to go here, I will be doing the overview for how the Blackwell/Petro race is going. SOB'ers as you report numbers for your area, also report on Blackwell/Petro numbers and I'll put it all together. I'll also be watching the high population counties of Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton (Cle, Col, Cincinnati) as these counties will make up probably half the overall vote.

So far I've noticed most everyone is noticing low turnout except for Newshound who notes high turnout in a couple of counties in the northwest.

As most of us know, one reason Ohio is the "generic" state is that Ohio has many different regions that vote and act differently, and so make a nice composite. The Western part of the state is like Indiana, very conservative and Republican. Southwest is like Kentucky, also very conservative, but more like a southern state. Southeast is appalachia and votes like West Virginia. And the Northeast is your typical union stronghold rust belt cities.

Columbus has a mixture of everything, and is usually the tie breaker.

Petro's strength is in the more moderate areas and he really needs high turnout in the NE and low turnout in the SW and West Ohio. However, the last few dispatch polls indicated a suprising amount of strength for Blackwell in the NE area.

Blackwell wants to boost his turnout on the I-75 corridor and keep Petro's vote to respectable levels in the rest of the state. He does fine if this happens. Interestingly, both Petro and Blackwell ended up in Cincinnati on the last day of the campaign. Could Cincy be the tiebreaker this time? Hard to imagine that Hamilton county wouldn't go overwhelmingly for Blackwell.

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