Tuesday, May 02, 2006

My Blackwell Theory

Since we'll have to wait an hour or so for results to start coming in, I'll post a question as fodder for discussion:

I've been writing for awhile on my blog that I think Ohio can buck the expected national trend of low Republican turnout this fall thanks to Ken Blackwell. I think he can generate enough excitement among conservatives to guarantee plenty of grassroots action and a big GOTV effort, hopefully carrying other Republicans in the state to victory as well.

Agree? Disagree? Wishful thinking?


Chucko said...

Ken brings a lot of excitement to the race. I'd probably have to drag myself to the polls in November if Petro won. Blackwell stepped aside to let Bob Tax run, and you see how the OHGOP establishment rewarded him. He's our opportunity to take back the state party!

Joe C. said...

With Petro it's a toss-up that he beats Strickland, but TEL loses, and the down-ticket Reps have trouble because of the indifference by conservatives towards Democrats and RINOs. However, Blackwell wins BIG with coattails for TEL and others.

Apart from Rep conservatives, Blackwell appeals to the more conservative ethnic and union Democrats, as well as Blacks; without these, Strickland struggles to get in the mid forties. All else being equal, if Blackwell wins 20% of Democrats (double Bush in '04), he is IMPOSSIBLE to beat.