Wednesday, May 17, 2006

RE: Human Events

that reminds me of something I already said, like, two months ago. Wait, here it is:

I know some of you are out there saying “Blackwell is too extreme!”, “Ted can run on that!”. Ha! here’s the big problem with that scenario. If Blackwell is the extreme candidate (and he isn’t, being a fairly ordinary conservative, the kind Ohioans elect for president) then Strickland must be the “safe” candidate. Blackwell can then change that into an outsider vs. insider theme with Blackwell as the outsider. And Strickland loses any possible advantage of running against Columbus. The 35%-40% of liberals in Ohio will eat up a Strickland defense of saving Ohio from Theocracy but it will be completely lost on the rest of the population (how much did the gay marriage amendment pass by again?).

I’m not saying the extreme angle wouldn’t work, but it’s not a great structural position for a campaign to be in.

Nice of the national folks to catch up with the local bloggers. Or maybe we're doing prep for them and making their jobs easier ;-)

Or maybe this analysis is just way too obvious.

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