Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Ready to Ruuuummmbbbbllle

Nixguy here testing out the soballiance blog posting capability. Definitely low turnout should favor the ideologically driven, the lesser the turnout the more that the electorate is made up of "establishment" or "broken glass republicans" (like Matt Dole of Lincoln Logs) and ideologically driven folks (think Evangelicals and NRA Lifers). There's more of the latter than the former, so low turnout should help both Blackwell and Pierce

3 comments:

Atreides said...

I think the estimates of 850,000 Republican votes may be high. I can see that was the turnout for the 04 election, but that was a Presidential election year as well.

Without this draw, or any statewide issues, I think Republican turnout could be as low as 600,000. This bodes well for Pierce as the only serious opposition candidate. After all, in 2004 the opposition candidate got almost 200,000 votes.

Arthur Balis

BizzyBlog said...

Atreides, you could very well be right. Bill has pointed out and the figures at my other post show that only 14% of registered voters are GOP and 19% are Dem, meaning 67% are considered independent. Bill thinks there has been a very big attrition in voter affiliation in the last 10 or so years, but I don't have numbers for that.

But if the overall turnout is indeed 25%-26%, I'd say at least half will be indies who will have to answer whether they want a GOP or Dem ballot, and then actually vote for candidates on whichever ballot they get. If there are a lot of no-votes, the total could be WAY below my prediction of 850,000 total GOP ballot Senate votes. Talk about a big unknown.......

Lincoln Logs said...

Walkin on, Walkin on broken glass. I am an Annie Lennox Republican!

Sorry I can't participate more readily today and this evening, I am engaged in lot's of stuff today.