Tuesday, May 02, 2006

SOS Exact Figures and turnout thoughts

Link
Data (000s) --
Total Registered: 7,684
Expected Turnout: 1,960
Total Registered Democrats (whether or not turning out, one assumes): 1,344
Total Registered Republicans: (same as for Dems): 1,094

Now here's what's interesting for Pierce fans: Three of the four counties where Bill won or tied all have higher than average expected turnouts than the SOS's overall 25%, and I think Clerco's Estimate is way lowballed for some reason.
- Preble (where Bill won on the first ballot and tied on the second): 45%
- Knox (a win): 28%
- Fulton (DeWine Third): 28%

Going against that is Clermont (where Bill won) at 15% but that seems very light, esp since Schmidt McEwen is such a slugfest. They had 22% for Schmidt-Hackett in August and 33% in Nov. when it was only RON and the local races:
http://www.clermontelections.org/file591.aspx
http://www.clermontelections.org/file539.aspx

I think Clerco is thinking it will be more like the 12% in last June's special, but I think they're very wrong, and that it will be close to 25%.

Miami Co., DeWine's sole endorsement win in very weird circumstances (for another time), expects high turnout too (35%).

Hamilton County's expected 30%, if it materializes, would be a huge influence on the 2nd district race. Cuyahoga's 18% and Franklin's 19%, if true, would be really bad news for DeWine.

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