Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Well, I'm Here

What a newbie. I didn't even know to go to Blogger.com to get started.

I'm going to repeat my predix about what it will take to win the Senate race and why.


Registered voters in Ohio (near end at link): about 7.7 million

Predicted turnout, per the Ohio Secretary of State: 25%

Estimated total votes: 1.93 million

Mike DeWine's Vote Total in 1994's contested Senate primary (rounded): 422,000 (52% of the vote; other challengers -- Bernadine Healy-264,000; George H. Rhodes-43,000; Gene J. Watts-83,000; Total votes-812,000)

Total US Senate votes cast in 1998 GOP Primary (rounded): 752,000 (544,000 for George Voinovich; 208,000 for his challenger)

BizzyBlog's topline estimates:

  • Voters using Republican ballot: 1 million (based on relative number of strongly contested races compared to Democrats, you would expect more than 50% of voters to vote in the Republican primary)

  • Ballots in the GOP US Senate race: 850,000 (many who do not know enough about DeWine's challengers will vote for no one)

  • Predicted Vote Total of 2006 GOP Senate Primary Winner: 360,000

I didn't look at DeWine's 2000 run or Voinovich's 2004 run because they were Prez election years, and the numbers wouldn't mean anything.


Matt Hurley said...

I'm glad you brought this over. I was going to link to it earlier, but I really thought it deserved your special treatment.

BizzyBlog said...

Thanks. Is that sort of like Zogby's special sauce?

Atreides said...

You are predicting a winner with less than 50% of the vote. This would be the high price of a three man race.

For the sake of the Party, I hope you are wrong.

I am hoping that David defeats Goliath today Pierce pulls out a victory.

Arthur Balis

LargeBill said...

Another wild card in this primary is the fact that the Republican party has a man running for governor who happens to be black. Could this result in people who have traditionally voted Dem asking for a Republican primary ballot? Those folks voting Republican mainly for one race are completely unpredictable votes in the other races.

BizzyBlog said...

Atreides, I don't see what the problem is with a plurality winning the election.

Jean Schmidt won a plurality in the 2nd last year against 10 other candidates, ran a terrible campaign against a very deceitful Paul Hackett (who pretended to be a Bush supporter in his TV ads), and still won.

The party that favors free markets and competition shouldn't be afraid of it in political races. The lack of competition and resultant complacency and false feeling of invincibility arguably gave us Bob Taft and Noe and the rest of them.

Large Bill, I hope what you're mentioning is measurable, because it is a REALLY interesting point. My theory is that African-American crossover in the primary to get a GOP ballot to vote for Blackwell will be minor, but that African-American crossover votes for Blackwell in November will be pretty significant (maybe 30% vs. 10% in past guv races).